If you cast your mind back to the ancient times of (checks notes) two weeks ago, you might remember that I wrote a piece up here saying that we should be optimistic about the Australian vaccine roll-out, because at the levels of roll-out growth seen in May, we should be on track to cover the … Continue reading The nicest way in which to get vaccine forecasts wrong
Category: Statistrickery
Australia has had a less awful time with covid-19 than most of the world. The 80% of Australians who don't live in Melbourne have been living mostly-normally for almost a year. Even Melburnians have done far better than the rest of the rich world as far as illness and deaths go. They've also done better … Continue reading Australia vaccinated by Christmas? It’s more likely than you think
It's been quite weird to sit in Australia, especially New South Wales, and watch the covid19 pandemic spread around the world. The main experience of covid here has been one of a miserable but fairly short lockdown, followed by ongoing minor inconvenience. This, obviously, put us in an extremely lucky position by world standards. We … Continue reading NSW covid19 contact tracing really is the gold standard
I have a thingo up at Citymetric on how agent-based modelling would have helped the poor sods at Govia Thameslink Railway realise how stuffed they were, at least in time to everyone from getting fired. There is a bit of dispute* in the extremely nerdy parts of the Internet about whether I'm being reasonable in … Continue reading And Bayes and Bayes and remembering nothing boy
Election opinion polling in the UK doesn't have a great record, with famously drastic poll upsets in 1992 (the 'shy Tories' year, although perhaps not actually) and 2015 (Milifandom, and the overprediction of the youth vote). The Brexit referendum result polling also has a bad rep, which is a bit undeserved, although the dire and … Continue reading The famous Ipsos MORI went to Rome to see the Pope…
Despite being largely immune from the economic woes that afflict flyover America and northern England, Australia is by no means immune from the present worldwide levels of hysteria about migrants taking our jerbs. We also have a struggling centre-right Prime Minister, who is beseiged by the far-right headbangers who dominate his party (and, to a … Continue reading Australia’s new restricted migration visa rules: serf’s up!
There were a couple of by-elections in the UK this week, both in traditionally-safe-ish Labour seats. Normally in the sixth year of Conservative government, this would be a boring event that nobody cared about: a medium-strength opposition wins government seats at by-elections (even if, as with Labour under Neil Kinnock pre-1992 and under Ed Miliband … Continue reading The Corbyn Effect, or ‘you’re nobody til everybody hates you’
Like most countries founded by people with a passionate and blind terror that they might at some point be subjected to democracy, Australia has a Senate with more-or-less absolute veto power over its House of Representatives. As in many federal countries, Australian Senators are allocated on a state-by-state basis, not on a citizen-by-citizen basis. The result is that … Continue reading My preference is that the clown show leaves town
One of the most interesting questions after the 2015 UK General Election is, how could all of the electoral polling possibly have gone so incredibly wrong? Labour and the Conservatives were predicted to be neck-and-neck and both short of forming a government on their own, with Labour losing about 50 seats in Scotland to the Scottish Nationalist … Continue reading There was no late swing, and there were no shy Tories
The UK's New Economics Foundation, who style themselves as nef because that's the sort of thing that was cool in 2003, are one of the worst think-tanks going [1]. With a couple of weeks to go before the 2015 General Election, they have jumped on the election news bandwagon. Their effort is well up to their normal … Continue reading FPTP doesn’t mean your vote is wasted – just ask a Scot