This is technically true (random quote from blog commenter, but one which reflects a lot of educated-people-who-know-about-stats opinion on the Silver model): Silver's analysis (which I happen to accept) won't be contradicted (or proven) in any way by tomorrow's outcome. Either result is accounted for in the model. People seem not to understand that. However, … Continue reading Thought on Nate Silver and election projection
Category: Bit of politics
In the context of the neo-puritan trial of Simon Walsh (description of case NSFW although text-only) for possessing 'extreme pornography' - in UK law, the simple ownership of photos of consenting adults doing kinky things to each other that could cause physical damage - civil liberties defender David Allen Green made the point that "the trial is about … Continue reading In order to protect the children, we had to imprison them
The first jetliner was Boeing's square-windowed 707; it was grounded after a few months following tragic incidents which wiped out a fair proportion of elite Americans. The money flowing to De Havilland to create a civilian airliner progamme to promote their non-murderous plane trumped nationalist concerns. Despite the fact that the 707 is a finer … Continue reading The Boeing Comet is still on sale
Everyone seems very upset about the fact that private security firm G4S has not delivered as many guards as contracted to police the white elephant that is Sports Day 2012, with many people suggesting it's an example of why outsourced contracts are terrible . I'm not sure they should. Let's rewind on what's happened here... G4S … Continue reading Why the G4S Olympics screw-up proves that outsourcing is good
Inspired by the "send a letter to the Government of Ecuador" left-meme, here's my letter to the Government of Ecuador: Dear the Government of Ecuador. You've got a slightly disturbing Cuba-light personality cult going, and Julian Assange is an autistic pervert who I wouldn't let within a hundred yards of any female friends or relations. … Continue reading All open letters are pathetic in the same way
After a massively high-spending recall campaign, a controversial Republican state governor has held onto power with a slightly increased majority (while losing control of the state senate). Naturally, the oh-so-left-wing US media are spinning this as Terrible Democrat Defeat, Disaster Due for November, etc. To highlight the fact that this spin is absolute dingoes' kidneys, it's … Continue reading The sun is, most likely, still gonna shine in November
From Ian B at Tim's place: The problem with a society in the grip of a moral panic- an example is the Gay Panic that started in Victorian England- is that it does not recognise it. The hysterical and extreme behaviours exhibited by panickers are considered not only normal, not even just desirable, but effectively … Continue reading 100% true, 100% of the time
Just a quick one on the incompetent Mr Beecroft's attempt to take labour relations back to the 1830s... noting that in private sector workplaces in England & Wales without union recognition agreements, all of the following are the case: There are straightforward processes available to sack lazy/incompetent workers which, if you follow them correctly, take … Continue reading Sacking people is easy to do
Governments in both England and Scotland are planning minimum-pricing regimes for alcohol. These are a terrible idea, not only if you're a liberal, but even on their own terms. There are three main issues associated with minimum pricing, all of which are conflated by minimum price proponents (this article is a good example of their … Continue reading Why minimum alcohol pricing is a terrible idea
Via Tim, I find a very cool article on the Aussies who worked in Melbourne under Bletchley Park's command, breaking the Pacific Axis's codes during WWII [*]. Very cool, and - unlike the (shamefully underfunded, GIVE THEM MONEY) museum at Bletchley, not even remembered at all. Should be. This obviously gets me onto the history … Continue reading This little thing? Oh, it doesn’t matter; here you go